Future Generations of Immigrant Populations
Higher education analysts in California rely upon demographic research to plan for the system's capacity to educate its future generations of residents. A recent report from the School of Policy, Planning, and Development at the University of Southern California is one such block of demographic research, and it specifically addresses a core element of California's future, its immigrant population. This report is titled "2005 Summary Report--Demographic Futures: Projections to 2030, by Immigrant Generations, Nativity, and Time of Arrival in U.S. This report makes the following conclusions, among many other important ones:
- "At present, only 37.1% of recent immigrants [of Latino background] are likely to be high school graduates, but this share rises to 61.6% of those who have resided 20 or more years in this country, and to 83.5% among the second generation...By 2030, a much greater proportion of young-adult Latinos will be long settled or second generation, and, all other things equal, the overall share who are high school graduates would be expected to rise substantially above the current level..."[pp.6-7]
- " A number of erroneous conclusions can be reached if one relies only on educational data for all Latinos lumped together. For example, the low high school completion rates only partly reflect the failings of California schools. As researchers at RAND have emphasized, many Latinos immigrated after the age at which they would have entered U.S. high schools, and so they cannot be said to be drop outs here. A second erroneous conclusion is that low attainment levels are evidence of low interest in education or a low propensity to do well in school. In fact, the evidence of sharp increases in educational achievement among those with deeper roots in California indicates a readiness for educational upward mobility..." [p.7]
- "Another erroneous inference is that the current average achievement levels are a good predictor of future achievement and demand for higher education by Latino youths and adults. Unfortunately, this leads to systematic underestimation of the number of Latino high school graduates. A more consequential error is that this under prediction can lead to an undersizing of the opportunities for higher education. In particular, the community college system has been a particular gateway of opportunity for youth from immigrant families. Any reduction in capacity or quality in the community colleges will only block the achievement potential among Latinos. Given the importance of this group to our future work force, as revealed by our projections, public policy should strive to enhance, not stunt, their potential for higher education..." [p.7, emphasis added]
This report has clear relevance to researchers and administrators. Because public higher education in California must plan for its educational capacity now in order to meet successfully the educational needs of the future (2030), the findings should help motivate a close examination of the state's funding and policy plans for higher education.
Dowell Myers (Professor and Director of the Population Dynamics Research Group, School of Policy, Planning, and Development, USC), John Pitkin (Senior Research Associate, School of PPD), and Julie Park (Associate Director, Population Dynamics Research Group) authored this report. The report, which includes extensive tables and documentation of its methods, is available at no charge from the following website: http://www.usc.edu/schools/sppd/futures/pdf/Myers_Pitkin_Park_CDF_ReportSummary.pdf
[Abstract done by Willard Hom, Director, Research & Planning Unit, System Office, California Community Colleges, 2/22/05]
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