Realizing a Change in Context

My Davidson College graduation class of 1964 thought we were being prepared to live, work, worship and lead in the same type of society that existed when my Dad's class graduated there in 1934. Little did I realize that this was the calm before the storm. Because it takes time for old ideas to be discarded and new filters to be established, it was only around the turn of the millennium that we began to realize the kind of change we have been experiencing since 1964 is different in kind as well as amount.

As a result graduates of 2007 are facing a totally different kind of society and future. In 1964 we learned about knowledge that had existed from the time of classical Greece, with many of the ideas only modified. New knowledge seeped into college curricula very slowly because it had to be tested against the deep roots of the truth of the past. We were trained that there was a right answer to everything. We looked to improve existing ideas and consider whether a theory of psychology or a system of manufacturing technology was the “right” one. We were trained to be “reformers.”

A Need for Transformers

Today, graduates are faced with a society that is totally different from 1964. They will need to be “transformers.” Because we lived in a slowly changing world, we tried to learn more about what was already known and conceived. Today's graduate must contend with an increasingly fast-paced interdependent and complex world. Whereas we learned models that already existed, today's graduate must learn to spot weak signals, identify trends and see new patterns and connections as they emerge. We graduated at a time of stability and certainty, where questions were asked by professors to identify and test knowledge that was already known.

Today's graduate will need to learn to ask their own questions to identify new knowledge and to learn how to see connections among totally disparate ideas and factors. The era of 1964 was the last year of an era based on certainty. Beyond 2007 is the beginning of a new epoch whose undergirding principles need to be designed to align with a dynamic and constantly changing society. This new era of constant change will require graduates capable of constant innovation.

A Time of Historical Transformation

The last fifty years has been a time of historical transformation… a bridge between two types of societies. Few people in history have been as lucky as today's young college graduates. They are young and talented at a time when the “tunnel of transition” is almost complete, and on the other side is a new world still in the process of forming. It is as if the graduates of 2007 are emerging from a historical wormhole, ready to help become the architects of a new universe during the 21st century. What a great opportunity for smart, motivated graduates. They will be the leaders and engineers of new institutions capable of being vital and sustainable in a new type of society. Tomorrow's society will be filled with individuals, organizations and communities set to explore uncharted territory and poised to develop new capacities that will need to be adapted to a different type of dynamic world.

With this said, I now want to apply “shock therapy.” In my opinion, graduates of 2007 are not ready to lead in this emerging world. Not because of lack of intelligence or motivation. The youth of today are more talented in many ways than ever before, and have a level of technical knowledge not held by any other living generation. There is no group presently as prepared to lead in a “futures context.” What is missing in general is a different set of skills necessary to understand ongoing transformation in every area of society.

Four areas of transformative leadership skills need to be developed: 1) attitudes and attributes consistent with a constantly changing society; 2) process skills able to create a culture of transformation ; 3) skills of connection of ideas, people and institutions; and 4) abilities to spot weak signals and trends to be a leader of continuous innovation.

Rethinking the Future

With the future so uncertain, one of the most important functions of any leadership group in a constantly changing world will be to seed weak signals and future trends into the dialogue and thinking of all areas of organizational and community life. The following identify twelve “megapactors” (weak signals and future trends of potential major magnitude) that should be in the knowledge base of any potential leader of the next twenty years:

1. A shift in energy base from fossil fuels to hydrogen and alternative energy.
2. Global warming that will rise mean temperatures by a minimum of 2.5% in 100 years.
3. Unknown viruses and resistant bacteria are emerging.
4. Accelerating change will test the limits of representative democracy.
5. Differential aging patterns of more seniors and more youth at the same time creates an economic and social time bomb.
6. The reduction in biodiversity could mean that 1/2 of existing species will be lost in the next fifty years.
7. We are approaching “technological singularity,” a moment when runaway advances outstrip human comprehension, and all our knowledge and experience becomes useless as a guidepost to the future.
8. Real time changes requires a new way of thinking and seeing connections as the world becomes increasingly complex.
9. We are in a thirty-year economic transition as the world shifts from an Industrial Economy to a Creative Knowledge Economy to a Web/Network Economy.
10. Artificial Intelligence emerges and challenges the concept of what it means to be human.
11. The confrontation of Islamic and Western Civilizations will create an environment of anger, mistrust and even hate unless new types of human and policy bridges are built.
12. National borders will increasingly become seamless.

Any leader of the future will need to think, act and conceive within a “futures context.” One of the leadership challenges of this time of transition is to help others see the need for transformation and understand how weak signals and trends potentially will impact the future.

Creating an Environment for Transformation—A Need for Connections

Leaders at all levels need to learn how to see connections and emerging patterns of all types. Diverse people, ideas, organizations and processes will be needed to help create an environment and culture supportive of the kind of thinking and activities that encourages true organizational and community transformation.

The ability to see connections is important for a number of reasons. Nothing is more important than to reconnect citizens to help transform institutions that presently are perceived as no longer working. A second type of connection relates to ideas and how we prepare our citizens and workforce for thinking and acting differently in a constantly changing society. Traditional education focuses on traditional content, one best answers and linear thinking. This is appropriate for a time of standards and hierarchies. It is totally inappropriate for a time when continuous innovation will be required. In a time of constant change, leaders will need to be able to create an environment where continuous innovation of new ideas, technologies and approaches will emerge that will align with a more complex society.

As a result leaders will need to develop a broader and deeper base of knowledge in order to be able to ask appropriate questions which is the basis for new knowledge. Over the next ten years, an updated emphasis on liberal arts will occur as more and more organizations and institutions recognize that narrow skills in one subject area do not allow those involved to see how one disparate area can connect with another.

Nothing can better illustrate the need to see connections on a larger scale encompassing more factors in a complex system than a quote from Tom Friedman's book, The Lexus and the Olive Tree:

"I believe that this new system of globalization constitutes a fundamentally new state of affairs, and the only way to see it, understand it and explain it is by arbitraging all six dimensions I have laid out above -- assigning different weights to different perspectives at different times in different situations, but always understanding that it is the interaction of all of them together that is really the defining feature of international relations today. And therefore being a globalist is the only way to systematically connect the dots, see the system of globalization and thereby order the chaos.”

It should become obvious to graduates of 2007 that they will need to think within a futures context and be able to ask questions pertinent to the development of new knowledge or emerging situations (e.g. Tom Friedman) if they want to develop capacities important to leadership within a constantly changing, increasingly complex society and world. This builds on the cutting edge work of Bruce Laduke of Indianapolis who emphasizes the “quest for questions” as the basis for the search for new knowledge.

Biology, Ecology and Processes of Transformation

The transformation from a society seeking one best answers to one anticipating multiple emerging outcomes has important implications for leadership in the 21st Century. As the society and world evolves in multiple connections as an interdependent, dynamic system within a futures context that is constantly changing, leaders will need to know how to build parallel processes that help organizations and communities build new capacities for transformation. Ideas and methods consistent with a static hierarchy, standard one best answers and singular models will still have importance in physical science and manufacturing, as well as health issues such as surgery. However the norm for the future will be based on unpredictability, ambiguity and uncertainty.

Life sciences based on living, changing systems will become the core norm for thinking about how an organization and society will be organized and structured and how it will be in a state of continuous evolution and transformation. All leaders for the next twenty years need to be grounded and schooled in the concepts and methods of ecology and biology that includes chaos and complexity theory and practice.

Even if the future cannot be predicted, it may be anticipated. One can lay seeds to build capacities for transformation as other short-term processes are established. Short term strategic planning for a time frame of 3-4 years will still use traditional methods of setting goals and objectives, defining outcomes and holding people accountable in measurable and quantifiable ways. For this kind of planning, traditional leadership concepts and methods are appropriate. However, when one begins to think about preparing for a constantly changing future that will emerge in unpredictable ways, leaders will need to build new types of skills. These new skills will need to reflect ideas such as 1) seeding transformation using small groups of early adopters, 2) using "futures generative dialogue," and 3) watching what emerges to be able to make innovative connections in different ways, for different reasons, at different times.

These skills will be based on the ecological ideas of a) self-organizing, b) interdependence, c) feedback, d) setting initial conditions and e) emergence. The best of all "process/transformative" leaders will be able to move back and forth between theory and practical action that is both linear (short term projects where factors and required outcomes are known) and non-linear processes (longer term transformative capacity building which seeds continuous innovation without the ability to predict the outcomes).

Overcoming Traditional Attitudes

All people who begin to understand what will be needed to be a leader of transformation find themselves in the uncomfortable position of requiring a transformation of personal attitudes and behaviors. Because these attitudes are often the opposite of what strong leadership has been seen to be in the past, this shift does not occur quickly unless the system is shocked by crisis or some “significant emotional event” (made popular by Morris Massey in the '80s) occurs.

The following list of attitudes will be important for any “process/transformative” leader to develop to be able to be effective in a time of uncertainty and constant change where continuous innovation, deeper collaboration and a shift in world view and perspective will be required. Because those schooled in traditional leadership concepts and methods will be challenged and threatened, the reason why the need for this shift is needed has been added.

1. An “and/both” approach (“either/or” thinking and action is self-limiting and non-connective, leading to best answers and debate, not futures generative dialogue)
2. Immense patience (transformation occurs when someone sees the need to change and is not based on some schedule of accountability)
3. Help each other succeed (a process leader must rise beyond selfishness and even the traditional approach of self-interest, rightly understood)
4. Listen for value in what others say (cannot look for connections without this attitude... otherwise a person will only look to support one's existing position)
5. No need to control (transformational change cannot be controlled, it needs to emerge on its own)
6. Passion for learning (other passions such as passion for money, need for recognition and achievement get in the way of creativity and new identify)
7. No expectations (a misunderstood idea…do not confuse with searching for excellence…this prevents personal frustration…let things emerge at their own rate)
8. Willingness to create tension on purpose (there is no growth or transformation without positive tension)
9. Willingness to let others be right (if authentic and appropriate)
10. Openness without judgment (prevents premature closing of thinking and increases collaboration)

And So It Goes (Billy Joel)

This is a great opportunity for the graduates of 2007. Not only can they prepare to be productive for themselves and their communities, they have a great opportunity to be a new kind of leader, a transformative leader, at a time of historical transformation. With so much change and so much confusion occurring during this time of transition from an Industrial Age to a Creative Knowledge Age, we will be dealing with great unpredictability, ambiguity and uncertainty. As members of the first generation immersed in computer technology and ready for the impact of virtual reality, the upcoming generation of leaders can offer a bridge to a world where technology and 21st century values meet in vital and sustainable ways if it is willing to commit the time and effort necessary to build this new set of 21st century skills.

As this new generation of leaders tests and uses ideas and methods of transformation, they will learn what works and what is worthless. To them, it will be an extension of computer games in a different reality. To those of us that are older, it will seem, using an old phrase of the '40 & '50s, as if they “were going bananas.” It is up to us in the class of 1964 to encourage the class of ’07 to do things differently that we were taught to do.

"Illiteracy in the future will not be the inability to read and write, but the inability to learn, unlearn and relearn”
…. Alvin Toffler, Futurist

We would add….the ability to “uplearn.”

When a time of transformation arrives, those comfortable only with the past must step aside, and let those preparing for a different kind of future test new and often radical concepts. What a wonderful challenge for our colleges and universities to introduce ideas and methods of leadership that are aligned with a new and dynamic society that is just beginning to emerge. It will take courage, a broad and deep knowledge of the past, an understanding of trends within a futures context, and a new set of skills to help transform our society. The result is to have true meaning for the rest of our lives.

About the Author

Rick Smyre
President
Center for Communities of the Future

Rick Smyre is an internationally recognized futurist specializing in the area of building “capacities for transformation” in local communities. A graduate of Davidson College and NC State University, he is President of the Center for Communities of the Future and is an architect of the new field of “molecular leadership” and “community transformation.”

Mr. Smyre’s work emphasizes innovative concepts, methods, and techniques connected with the Communities of the Future idea in collaboration with a network of over 1000 individuals in forty-six states and six countries. The focus of this work is to develop “capacities for transformation” in the thinking and activities of citizen leaders in local communities.

Mr. Smyre can be contacted by email at rlsmyre@aol.com or by phone at 704-864-9196.